The details are sketchy, but one thing is clear; the Obama Administration is pissed. After Attorney General Eric Holder announced that Iranian-American Manssor Arbabsiar was in custody for attempting to pull off a blatant act of international terrorism, the U.S. has upped the ante with Iran publicly, with Vice President Biden warning of dire consequences for the regime

It’s a far cry from the ‘Open Hand’ Obama promised the Iranian regime when he came in to power in 2009. That’s not all that doesn’t add up.

The plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador in Washington restaurant is alleged to originate from the al-Quds brigade in Iran. The al-Quds are perhaps the most secretive paramilitary organization on the planet. Little to nothing is known about them. They report directly to Ayatollah Khamenei (not President Ahmadinejad) and their numbers are thought to be between 5 – 15 thousand. They recruit only the best and brightest from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. They are violent and they are pushing the religious leadership of the Islamic Republic as hard as they can to develop a nuclear weapon.

Why? They believe it’s necessary to fortify the ‘Shiia Crescent’ they’ve been attempting to establish for decades across the Middle East – aka aiding Shiite groups like Iran in getting to power. It’s the cause of the grief with neighbouring Saudi Arabia, dominated by Sunnis. A nuclear weapon cements Iran’s regional leadership in bold defiance of the United States and Saudi Arabia.

The last decade of American diplomacy towards Iran has been aimed at preventing an Iranian nuke. The Mullahs who run Iran, by contrast, live in fear of the possibility that the U.S. will sponsor a counter-revolution. Iranian foreign policy has focused on preventing open warfare with the U.S.

Make no mistake, Iran could build a bomb if it wanted to. With technology available from North Korea and floating around in Pakistan and India, the tools are there. The Ayatollah, in a clear rejection of the wishes of the al-Quds brigade, has held off in fear of U.S retribution.

So something stinks. It is not feasible the highest levels of the Iranian government were aware of the assassination plot. If it had been carried out, an assassination on foreign soil followed by an attack on the Israeli embassy, the Obama administration would have casus belli. It would have been an act of war. Game over.

So what’s actually going on? With obvious oil interests in the Gulf of Arabia, it’s important to understand that the CIA has actually been fighting a heavy clandestine war against the al-Quds brigade across the Middle East since 2005, in an attempt to prevent Shiite factions from rising to power across the region.

And the U.S. hasn`t exactly been picky who it chooses as friends in this fight.  The CIA has actively funded Baluchi political groups inside Iran. Robert Baer, a former CIA officer, says “the Baluchis are Sunni fundamentalists who hate the regime in Iran, but you can also describe them as al-Qaeda”. Baluchi alumni include Ramzi Yousef – mastermind of the 1993 World Trade Center attack – and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed – mastermind of 9/11.

So the al-Quds have been stifled, but this doesn`t make them stupid. In this operation, money was wired through an American bank. The aid of Mexican cartels was enlisted. Two very big red herrings for U.S. intelligence officials and not something you do if you don`t want to get caught.

What`s likely? Rogue elements within al-Quds frustrated with the Iranian regime who decided to try and take matters in their own hands. Every organization has people frustrated with management. Problem with the al-Quds is that the frustrated ones have money, guns, and violent habits.

What’s next? Well Holder, Biden, and Obama have all been very clear that Iran will be punished. Problem is that the only tool the U.S. has used hasn’t really punished the ones we’re after. Sanctions haven’t inhibited the al-Quds ability to operate, only made it harder for Iranian families to feed themselves. More sanctions likely won’t get past the UN Security Council, so tools available include an embargo and/or military strikes against al-Quds facilities.

The problem with an embargo is that you’d likely get an Iranian retaliation against U.S. troops still in Iraq. The problem with military strikes is that there is no such thing as proportional response. They would compel the Iranian theocracy to publicly retaliate militarily against the United States for an assassination they never ordered, or even knew was being planned.

Both of these options are bad.  To use either one, would mean no turning back for the U.S.

With an election coming up, the Obama Administration better be absolutely certain it was senior Iranian officials, and they had better able to prove it. I for one am not yet convinced.